“Only with international guarantees”
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In October 2024, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire after months of escalating cross-border conflict, with the United States and France brokering the deal. The ceasefire is fragile: it depends on both sides restraining from attacks, Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah's disarmament—all complicated by deep mistrust and competing regional interests. Whether this truce holds long-term hinges on whether international pressure, enforcement mechanisms, and diplomatic talks can overcome the structural incentives for renewed conflict.