·Geopolitics
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
50%
“Yes, military action is likely”
▼ 0.64 voices·Updated 1w ago
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Timeline
Apr 1
Polymarket updated trading odds regarding a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by March 2026.
Mar 17
Polymarket reported trading odds on a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 2026.
Aug 2, 2022
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, escalating tensions with China.
Oct 1, 2021
China celebrated its National Day with increased military activity near Taiwan.
Jan 1, 2016
Taiwan elected Tsai Ing-wen, who opposed unification with China.
The Discourse
What people are actually saying
𝕏4
Critical
@GaryMarcus Why would China invade Taiwan? Public opinion in Taiwan is rapidly turning against the US (like everywhere else) Taiwan will ultimately choose a form of reunification. If Trump survives 3 more years, Taiwan will be begging for it
@ShayneALong · 𝕏 · 4w♥ 5
Supportive
@SUNOOSIY Let me tell you my theory, China has plans to invade Taiwan. We all know it. I believe Trump used the mass slaughter and nukes as reason to slaughter them all to make sure China doesn't invade.... Trump is trying to prevent world war... My opinion anyway.
@Jacques4YHWH · 𝕏 · 2w♥ 2
Critical
@BenniKim china cannot invade taiwan. (i) economically too costly via sanctions from RoW and chip dependence (DD% hit to GDP for a country already domestically crumbling) (ii) chinese public opinion vastly prefers status quo (see weiss 2019) (though u could say that china doesnt …
@fatbowzi · 𝕏 · 4w♥ 1
Supportive
@SMoabj73723 @SpiralOSINT @Defence_IDA China has the edge for now. But inevitably the US will match China in terms of scale and cost. We will see this before the Chinese invade Taiwan. The progress is very real. Anyone who's trying to dismiss this is delusional.
@KulanithaK71503 · 𝕏 · 1w♥ 1
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