Will Taiwan maintain its independence?

Context

Taiwan is a self-governing island with its own government, military, and democratic system, yet its political status remains contested. The People's Republic of China claims Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out military force to achieve unification, while Taiwan's government and many of its 23 million citizens prefer maintaining the current independent status quo. This ambiguity—neither formal independence nor unification—has defined cross-strait relations for decades, but rising Chinese military capabilities and shifting U.S. policy have made Taiwan's future one of the most consequential geopolitical questions of the 2020s.