Will there be a viable third party in US politics by 2030?

Context

The U.S. political system has been dominated by Democrats and Republicans for over 150 years, but growing dissatisfaction with both parties has sparked recurring debates about whether a viable third party could emerge. A third party would need to overcome structural barriers including winner-take-all elections, ballot access requirements, and the difficulty of building national infrastructure—challenges that have defeated previous attempts from Ross Perot to the Green Party. With 4 years remaining until 2030, the question hinges on whether demographic shifts, polarization, or a major political realignment might finally create the conditions for a durable alternative.