Will there be a viable third party in US politics by 2030?

Context

The U.S. political system has been dominated by Democrats and Republicans for over 150 years, but periodic frustration with both parties has sparked recurring interest in viable third-party alternatives. A third party would need to overcome structural barriers including winner-take-all elections, ballot access requirements, and the difficulty of building national infrastructure—challenges that have defeated numerous attempts since the 1990s. The question of whether a third party could emerge by 2030 hinges on whether voter dissatisfaction with the two major parties reaches a tipping point before then.